1-Yr Daily Volatility of Key Asset Categories Over 10+ Years (Watch Out)

The level of calmness in the markets, as evidenced by daily volatility, is unusual and disconcerting.  Rising interest rates and probably peaked out corporate leverage and profit margins are likely to increase volatility; and unintended consequences of US tax law changes may add surprises on top.

There is not much room for less volatility.  Don’t get too comfortable.  2018 is likely to be a bumpier ride than 2017.

These charts of 1-year daily percentage volatility beginning in 2005  or 2006 show the very low, in some cases 10-year low volatility for key asset categories.  The exception is very short-term Treasuries which are increasing in volatility from a depressed level, as the Fed begins to raise the overnight rate.

(click images to enlarge)

S&P 500 Stocks (SPY)

Non-US Development Markets Stocks (EFA)

Emerging Market Stocks (EEM)

Gold (GLD)

Long-Term Treasuries (TLT)

Short-Term Treasuries (SHV)

Comments are closed.